Ch-Ch-Changes
Briefings from the ongoing European Capital of Conservatism
Welcome BACK to Based In Budapest.
Film pitch: Goodbye, Lenin!, but for Fidesz supporters?
We fear we rather overdid it at our election night event. Tatratea is a cruel mistress. And an even crueler wife. But as the smoke clears, and the flaming hole cools sufficiently that it can be excavated, we find that the initial crater is actually destined to become an attractive water feature.
No doubt the Exciting Era Of Change ahead will come with many Interesting Opportunities, but Budapest remains the European Capital of Conservatism for a reason: this is where it’s at. Where else is it at? Den Haag? Malmö?
Besides, whatever their plans for government, our Very Welcome New Insect Overlords will preside over a city still dripping in culture — and the work of setting the frame, sharing ideas, continues.
That’s right: life goes on.
Events This Week
First up on Tuesday at the DI. OTS Observer status - is it a strategic advantage for Hungary? What is it like to watch the Organisation of Turkic States? Do you occasionally get to chip in from the bleachers? Or is it a bit like one of those experiential theatre gigs, where the performers sort of dance sensually amongst you on a Golden Age of Hollywood set? At 5:30PM, the biggest Turcophiles in the DI will be debating this important step for the country, as it continues to broaden its Turkic outreach. Sign up here.
One more imaginative exercise this week: what’s it like looking out from the judge’s bench? Do they keep snacks in there? Do the lawyers wink back? Is there actually a button for a trapdoor beneath the accused, or is that just an urban myth?
On the whole, A View from the Bench: Personal Reflections on the Practice of Constitutional Adjudication, covers the more workaday stuff of finessing constitutional law in a world of conflicting rights and case law with quasi-legal status. Hosted by Marc Bossuyt, the former president of the Belgian Constitutional Court. You’ll have to go to the Kinizsi Pál Room at MCC (Tas vezér utca 3-7), at 5:30PM.Tuesday. Register here.
CTRL+ Youth – Raising Conscious Digital Citizens is the title of a talk by the MCC Youth Research Institute at the MCC Scruton. 10AM, Tuesday. Personally, Based In Budapest’s favourite control-key is Ctrl+Shift+Z - Re-do. Much more useful than Undo. FYI: if you have an iPhone, shaking it produces the Re-do function.
Around Town
Speaking of Da Yoot, our colleague Tamás Maraczi has some thoughtful points on the recent youthquake that took Tisza to victory.
Shortly before the election, Henry Olsen was asked at dinner who he thought would win. As one of America’s top pollsters, Henry was nervous about committing a hostage to fortune: “But if you had to put a gun to my head, I’d say Tisza,” he mused. Henry’s self-execution strategy comes up trumps again.
Three days before the poll, he had given a psephological master class, in collaboration with John Fund, Ralph ‘Clean Living’ Schoelhammer, and John O’Sullivan.
Talking through the key issues and big cultural splits in the Hungarian voter base. Much like that headline prediction, the underlying data work holds up remarkably well in the light of what we now know. Viewable here.
Anthropic may be making up with the US Federal Government, says Fellow Traveller Gavin Haynes in UnHerd. The White House recently blacklisted the company for refusing to give them a blank cheque on the end uses of their models. But Anthropic has the edge right now, and the implications for defence from a more human-centred AI are paradoxically vast. A killing machine is always first a deciding machine. Besides, Anthropic’s new model, Mythos, has a capacity to engage in both defensive and offensive cyber-war that changes the strategic calculus. Imagine if someone had privately come up with The Manhattan Project, Haynes suggests: that’s what we’re looking at.
Immediately after the election, the DI wanted to do something a bit more uplifting — lighter than the news cycle.
So the subject we alighted on was international terrorism, murder and mayhem. If you’re in the mood for black arts in the kitsch and cosy surrounds of 1980s Budapest, take this 90 minute seminar on Carlos The Jackal and Socialist Spycraft, starring Research Fellow Dániel Farkas — author of an excellent paper on the subject.
This was a rich multimedia piece, featuring narration, a full slide deck (with pictures of Carlos’ elegant sociopathic squeeze, Magdalena Kopp), video, and a unique Q&A format.
Anne-Elisabeth Moutet rejected our assertion that she is ‘the doyenne of France correspondents’. But she nonetheless issued a governess-tier education in France when she came on the podcast. In the latest episode of Danube Politics, she explains why the French love civil servants, what’s going on with the Le Pen conviction, and why the RN would win 10 times out of 10 in a run-off election against Jean-Luc Mélenchon.
Stop what you’re doing and listen to Jonathan Price. Louche learned Jonathan hosted the first episode of Danube Culture’s new show: Who’s In, Who’s Out. The premise: take two guests, give them ultimate power to port one overlooked piece of culture (art, music, poetry, books) INTO the Western Canon. And then, chuck one over-rated work OUT. First episode: John O’Sullivan and Cristiana Sessini - an Oxford classicist.
Cristiana decided she wanted Boethius (who wrote The Consolation of Philosophy while under death sentence) IN, and Catullus (leery poetry often plated up to titillate teens into going further with Latin) OUT.
John O’Sullivan wanted to give Samuel Beckett the old heave-ho — “I bow to no one in my loathing for Beckett” — and to insert the whimsy of PG Wodehouse. These are thin characters, he conceded, but how beautifully thin!
You’re not going to believe this (well, maybe you will if you have great capacity for belief), but Kiefer Sutherland is playing A38 on Tuesday. That’s right: the Musketeer and spawn-of-Donald is now a musician, with his own unique line in alt-Americana. Suspend your disbelief here.
Meanwhile, on Sunday, Tori Amos, grandmére to the Zoomer angst of the likes of Mitski, is on at the Erkel Theatre. For 25 000 Ft, a bargain.
Did you know that one of our Fellow Travellers was once in the French Foreign Legion?
Of course, in keeping with the lore of the Legion, we’re not allowed to say which one. But that does mean that there are now at least two Danube fellows who can kill you with their bare hands (John O’Sullivan being the other).
In fact, our anonymous fellow has written an anonymous book on his experiences: The Monastery of the Damned.
Recently, the book has been on sale on Kindle — please fill your boots.
Nick Thorpe is the Steve Rosenberg of MittelEuropa. The BBC’s regional correspondent sits in a now sadly old-fashioned BBC tradition of patient and thoughtful journalists who really get to grips with their region. His interview with Péter Magyar in February drew much out. But this week, it was Thorpe as a gangly young journalist nearly forty years ago that drew our eye.
The BBC Archives channel has just re-released a charming 24 minute portrait of Budapest and its young people that Thorpe made in mid-1989, months before the system came crashing down. Also features an early appearance from a 19 year old József Szájer, later known for, well, other things…
Finally, Friday is May Day - and it is definitely Still A Thing here, though the Majális has been re-coded to fit a less Stalinist age. Many events to choose from, but the best example of this is probably A Modern Majális, where Széll Kálmán tér transforms into a music, food, and entertainment hub, kicking off at noon and running late into the evening.
Paper Of The Week
The MAGA Effect: The Impact of US Domestic Policy on Security in Europe and the Indo-Pacific
“The biggest mistake people are making is believing that America is abandoning its allies,” says Fellow Traveller Sean Nottoli. “It’s not - it’s just recalibrating how those alliances work.”
In a world of Trump whisperers, this is perhaps the best overall comment on the art and science of inducting DJT’s trajectory.
But Sean makes a good point: the game of diplomacy is now as personal as it has ever been, and in the Trump White House is conducted by fits of intensive bargaining over highly specific claims, plus a broad ‘vibe check’, best cultivated through personal relations. Can DJT like your leader? Do they seem like they mean it?
There are big lessons here for the future of Hungary — which has so far displayed both the flexibility and commitment to slot into the new paradigm.
In other words, the MAGA movement is not isolationist. It believes that US military might should be used unilaterally, if necessary - to support the key interests of the United States. Those key interests include the recent capture of Nicolás Maduro, the former President of Venezuela. They include the move towards regime change in Iran. They include countering the military rise of China in the Indo-Pacific region.
However, those key interests do not necessarily include countering Russia. Russia is not seen as a serious, let alone primary, threat. In this respect, Trump supporters’ view of the world is very different to that of most European governments.
“A hangulatom a béka segge alatt van”
— My mood is below the bum of a frog